Lu, Xinyi (2025) Hybrid Model Of Climate Effects On Dengue Forecast And Control In Selangor, Malaysia. PhD thesis, Universiti Sains Malaysia.
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Abstract
Existing dengue forecasting approaches in Malaysia are constrained by two main limitations: deterministic models typically assume a constant mosquito biting rate, neglecting its climate-driven variability, while statistical time series models are usually effective only for short-term forecasts. These constraints hinder the accurate prediction of outbreak dynamics and limit the utility of earlywarning systems. This study develops two integrated approaches: (i) coupled Susceptible-Infective for vector populations and Susceptible-Infective-Recovered for human populations (SI-SIR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with eXogenous variables (ARIMAX) model, and (ii) SISIR with Multiple Linear Regression and Long Short-Term Memory (MLR-LSTM) model.
| Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA1-939 Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Pusat Pengajian Sains Matematik (School of Mathematical Sciences) > Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Mr Aizat Asmawi Abdul Rahim |
| Date Deposited: | 06 May 2026 06:41 |
| Last Modified: | 06 May 2026 06:41 |
| URI: | http://eprints.usm.my/id/eprint/64094 |
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