Song, Yu (2025) Natural And Synthetic Rubber In China: Production Performance, Import Ability And Production Forecast. PhD thesis, Universiti Sains Malaysia.
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Abstract
China's rubber industry, including natural and synthetic rubber, plays a vital role in the national economy but faces persistent challenges. From 1993 to 2022, the average natural rubber productivity reached 1.13 tons per hectare, significantly lower than Thailand’s 1.54 tons per hectare, revealing low productivity and inefficiency. Technical efficiency (TE) and total factor productivity (TFP) declined in state-owned enterprises, particularly in Hainan and Yunnan. Synthetic rubber production expanded steadily, supported by technology and policy measures, yet overall production remains insufficient. Natural rubber production growth fluctuated under global economic crises and market volatility, while heavy dependence on imports increased supply chain vulnerability. This study evaluates production performance and import ability, identifies affecting factors, and forecasts future trends. Data Envelopment Analysis measures TE, the Solow Growth Model estimates TFP, and multiple linear regression examines determinants, while the Prophet model predicts long-term production growth. Import ability is assessed using Relative Import Advantage (RMA) and import capacity.
| Item Type: | Thesis (PhD) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) > H1-99 Social sciences (General) |
| Divisions: | Pusat Pengajian Sains Kemasyarakatan (School of Social Sciences) > Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Mr Aizat Asmawi Abdul Rahim |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Sep 2026 07:49 |
| Last Modified: | 30 Sep 2026 07:49 |
| URI: | http://eprints.usm.my/id/eprint/65064 |
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