Mohd, Saidatulakmal and Chi, Chong Teh and Samsurijan, Mohamad Shaharudin (2026) Demographic Shifts and Trade Dynamics: Comparative Insights from Malaysia and Thailand within ASEAN. SEA Trade Intelligence Regional Foresight Dialogue 2026.
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Abstract
Demographic shifts is increasingly recognised as a major structural transformation with farreaching implications for economic performance, labour markets and international trade. While a substantial body of literature has examined the effects of demographic change on economic growth and fiscal sustainability, relatively little attention has been devoted to its implications for trade dynamics, particularly within Southeast Asia. The paper examines how demographic shifts, such as population ageing and changes in labour force structure, affect trade patterns in Malaysia, Thailand and ASEAN and empirically estimates the impact of demographic shifts on trade variables. The paper employs descriptive analysis as well as empirical analysis using bounds testing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships between trade outcomes and demographic variables. The results reveal that the effects of demographic ageing on trade are heterogeneous across countries. Percentage of total population aged 65 years and above significantly affects Malaysia's trade balance in the long run, although its effects on export performance, import demand and trade openness are not statistically significant. In Thailand, percentage of total population aged 65 years and above is positively associated with exports and trade openness, indicating that structural transformation and productivity-enhancing adjustments have enabled the economy to maintain trade competitiveness despite a shrinking workforce. At the ASEAN level, demographic variables significantly influence trade openness but exhibit limited effects on exports, imports and trade balance, reflecting the diverse demographic profiles of member states. The findings suggest that demographic transition is not merely a social challenge but an important determinant of trade dynamics. As ASEAN economies continue to age at different rates, demographic considerations should be incorporated into trade, industrial and regional integration strategies to sustain long-term competitiveness and economic resilience.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > HB1-3840 Economic theory. Demography |
| Divisions: | Bahagian Penyelidikan & Inovasi (Division of Research & Innovation) > Pejabat Pengurusan Kreativiti & Penyelidikan (Research Creativity & Management Office (RCMO)) |
| Depositing User: | Mr Hasmizar Mansor |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Sep 2026 01:53 |
| Last Modified: | 21 Sep 2026 01:53 |
| URI: | http://eprints.usm.my/id/eprint/64990 |
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