Chin , Phaik Nie
(2016)
The Effect Of Traders’ Cognitive Biases On Psychological Attributes And Confidence And Its Solutions: An Experimental Study.
PhD thesis, Universiti Sains Malaysia.
Abstract
Pedagang saham cenderung menbuat keputusan berdasarkan intuisi mereka yang menjurus bias kognitif seperti “confirmation bias”, “self-serving bias” dan “hindsight bias”. Bias ini membuat pedagang saham mempamerkan sifat-sifat psikologi terlalu yakin seperti “miscalibration”, “better than average effect” dan “illusion of control” dan demikian, mempamerkan bias terlalu yakin dalam pembuatan keputusan mereka di pasaran sekuriti. Tesis ini bertujuan untuk memeriksa hubungan antara bias kognitif, sifat-sifat psikologi terlalu yakin dan bias terlalu yakin, dan mekanisme-mekanisme meminimumkan bias terlalu yakin antara pedagang saham individu, dengan jumlah perdagangan dan ralat ramalan harga sebagai proksi. Kajian ini dibahagikan kepada dua peringkat uji kaji makmal iaitu tiga rawatan kawalan dan enam rawatan utama. Mata pelajaran di semua rawatan dipengaruhi dengan bias kognitif. Ukuran sifat-sifat psikologi terlalu yakin dikumpulkan melalui soal selidik di eksperimen, manakala jumlah perdagangan dan ralat ramalan harga dikumpulkan dari mekanisme dagangan mudah.
Traders tend to make decisions based on their intuition, which leads to cognitive biases such as confirmation bias, self-serving bias and hindsight bias. These biases cause traders to display psychological attributes of overconfidence such as miscalibration, better than average effect and illusion of control over a decision, and thus, display overconfidence bias in their decision-making in the securities market. This thesis aims to examine the relationship between cognitive biases, psychological attributes of overconfidence and overconfidence bias, and solution mechanisms so as to minimise overconfidence bias among individual traders, with trading volume and price prediction error as the proxy. The study consists of three experimental series. Each series again is divided into a control treatment and two sub-main treatments. Each treatment consists of two main periods, where in the sub-main treatments subjects are treated by mechanism before the second period starts to reduce cognitive biases. The measurement of psychological attributes was collected through a questionnaire in the experiment, and the trading volume and price prediction error were deduced from a simple trading mechanism.
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